2016 methanol thick accumulation of thin hair in the fourth quarter

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From the business community energy index, the energy index on December 30 was 775 points, which was 25.70% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 1043 points (2012-03-29), which was 51.66 higher than the lowest point of March 1, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date). In 2016, the energy index rose by 230 points from the 545 points at the beginning of the year, an increase of 42.2%. Among them, 778 points on December 21 hit a new high of nearly 26 months.

In 2016, energy products were “up and down”. According to the price monitoring of business websites, there were 22 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose in the energy sector in 2016. There were 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and the average price of this year was up and down. It was 36.12%, which was up 61.04% compared with 2015.

Li Wenjing, a senior analyst of the business community energy branch, pointed out that in 2016, all parties in the energy market were well-connected, and they were very different from the green trend of the whole line last year. The main factors affecting this phenomenon are two aspects: on the one hand, in 2016, international crude oil from At the beginning of the year, the trough all the way back and forth, and by the end of the year, OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers reached a historic frozen production agreement, and international oil prices climbed to a high of the year, up to 52.86 US dollars / barrel. The strength of crude oil drives the overall energy market to improve. The oil industry chain products follow the different levels of crude oil prices. Taking gasoline and diesel as an example, in 2016, domestic refined oil products experienced 25 price adjustment cycles, of which 5 were downgraded and 10 were raised. , 10 times without adjustment. After the ups and downs, the total increase of gasoline was 1,015 yuan/ton, and the total increase of diesel oil was 975 yuan/ton. On the other hand, in 2016, the national policy of “three to one, one drop and one subsidy” was gradually implemented, and the supply-side reform effect appeared. The reduction of supply at the supply end of coke products is much greater than the decrease in demand. The low supply and low inventory of coal coke products have become a common phenomenon. The coal coke plate has spurred leaps and bounds. Among them, coke led the energy list, second in coking coal and fifth in thermal coal. In addition, the consumption of electricity and coal continues to increase. At the same time, under the support of infrastructure and real estate, the corresponding coal demand in the steel and building materials industries has also increased substantially, and the expansion of coal enterprises has increased the price of coal. The price of coke products continues to rise.

In 2016, the crude oil shocked up the upstream gasoline and diesel oil respectively increased by 1015 yuan / ton, 975 yuan / ton

In terms of upstream crude oil, the crude oil market is full of drama in 2016. International crude oil fell first, until the beginning of the year, the lowest oil hit $ 27.1 / barrel; the US oil hit a minimum of 26.05 US dollars / barrel. After the bottoming out, the price of oil has oscillated all the way back. Especially at the OPEC meeting at the end of November, OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers reached a historic frozen production agreement, and international oil prices climbed to a high of the year, up to 52.86 US dollars / barrel. On the whole, international crude oil quickly rose after the bottom of the first half of the year, and the second half of the year was narrowly arranged in a narrow range. In terms of gasoline and diesel, the overall refined oil market in 2016 showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The increase of gasoline and diesel was 5.98% and 17.03% respectively. At the beginning of the year, the price of gasoline and diesel continued to decline in 2015, and the price of gasoline and diesel fell to the lowest point of the year in the first half of August, respectively, at 5474, 4554 yuan / ton; afterwards, it rose upwards, and rose to the highest point in the year on December 30, gasoline 6745, Diesel 6495 yuan / ton. There are two specific reasons: On the one hand, the trend of domestic refined oil prices is generally consistent with the trend of crude oil. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, the international oil price fell below 30 US dollars at the beginning of the year to reach the low point of the year. As of the beginning of August, the international oil price was still below the floor price of 40 US dollars. In November, OPEC unexpectedly reached the first production reduction agreement in eight years. The international oil price returned to the bull market and temporarily stabilized at the end of the year at $50. On the other hand, the price of refined oil was highly correlated with its own supply. At the beginning of 2016, due to the low crude oil price, the refinery's profit was considerable. The operating rate of the main units and the local refining enterprises was high, about 79% and 60% respectively. The oversupply of products and the prices of refined oil products continued to decline. Subsequently, the refinery gradually began to stop production and maintenance. By August, the operating rate of the main units and refining enterprises fell to the lowest point in the year, which was 76% and 52% respectively, combined with the upgrading of oil quality and the replacement of negative diesel resources. As a result of short-term shortage of refined oil resources, while crude oil prices skyrocketed, the refined oil market opened up in the second half of the year.

2016 methanol thick accumulation of thin hair in the fourth quarter

From the perspective of methanol, it rose from 1718 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2878 yuan/ton at the end of the year, an increase of 67.52%, ranking fourth in the energy growth list. In 2016, the methanol industry has become a “turning over”. In the first three quarters, the price trend rose steadily and the amplitude was small. In the fourth quarter, it jumped up and rose straight. Specifically: First, in the first three quarters, methanol basically continued its trend in previous years. The spring maintenance season in March and April combined with the policy impact, driving a wave of methanol market. Since then, domestic methanol prices have entered a slow recovery period. Since July, environmental protection supervision of the methanol industry has been carried out in North China and Central China. Some small and medium-sized production enterprises have stopped production and stopped production. The supply and demand of methanol has quietly turned. Secondly, the advent of the “Golden September and Silver 10” market opened the price of methanol in the second half of 2016. "Pole hop". In the fourth quarter, all parties were happy to gather together, and the price rise was difficult to recover. In the fourth quarter alone, the increase was 49.5%. First, the sharp increase in coal prices in the early period gave methanol a great support, and the price was very obvious. Second, environmental inspections in the Mainland and overhaul of autumn installations have led to a reduction in the supply of methanol in some areas, while the centralized procurement of traditional downstream and olefins companies has made the demand for goods in short supply. Third, the steadily rising international oil prices and external disk also gave the space for methanol to rise. Seeing the multi-mindity “crowded” with the current price of methanol, the price climbed together during the year. In terms of downstream dimethyl ether, the annual increase was 24.86%. In 2016, the overall trend of DME prices was basically the same as that of methanol, but the increase was very different. As the price of raw material methanol continues to push up, DME companies forced by cost pressure have also raised their prices significantly, but the LPG market has been in a low position for a long time, resulting in a significant reduction in the use of dimethyl ether by end users. The operating rate of ether plants was once reduced to 20%, and some enterprises were gradually converted or resold due to long-term losses. As of the end of 2016, the normal start-up production capacity of dimethyl ether is only 6-7 million tons/year, and most of the enterprise equipment capacity operation rate is only maintained at half, and some enterprises are in the state of shutdown or self-use all the year round, resulting in dimethyl ether. The output has shrunk dramatically. Throughout 2016, the total domestic production of dimethyl ether was no more than two million tons.

2016 "Coal" Dream Come True Black Charcoal Products Open Crazy "Gorgeous Counterattack Tour"

After a year of falling prices in 2015, this year's black charcoal products opened the "Glorious Counterattack Tour." Coke increased from 670 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 1983.75 yuan / ton on December 21, an increase of 196.08%, a five-year high; coking coal rose from 648 / ton at the beginning of the year to 1364 yuan / ton on December 29, The increase was 110.49%, a four-year high; the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Sea rose from 371 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 607 yuan/ton on November 2, up 63.6%, a record high of nearly three years. Since 2016, under the influence of the de-capacity policy and the recovery of demand, China's coal industry has gradually emerged from a low tide, and coal enterprises have ended a losing streak, and coal prices rebounded at the bottom. In the first half of 2016, the process of de-capacity was slow. Although coal production has fallen sharply year-on-year, the release of downstream demand is limited, and coal prices have rebounded moderately. The prices of coking coal, coke and thermal coal have not increased much, and they are divided into 16.05%, 27.99%, 7.80%. In the second half of the year, the production process has accelerated, and the provinces and cities have successively issued production-restriction targets. The situation of oversupply of coal has been significantly eased. In addition, the downstream supply has entered a peak demand period. The upstream supply is tight and the downstream low inventory has become a common phenomenon. The price of coal coke products has risen spurt. There are four reasons for the rise of thermal coal: First, the implementation of the 276-day limited production policy, domestic coal production fell sharply. Since 2016, major coal-producing provinces have implemented 276 working days and holiday public holidays, which has reduced capacity utilization, which is equivalent to a 16% reduction in the daily output of a coal mine to 84% of its initial production. The direct effect; the second is the gap generated by the mismatch of coal supply and demand to form an effective support for coal prices. From January to November 2016, the cumulative output of raw coal in China was 3.05 billion tons, down 10% year-on-year. The monthly raw coal output has fallen by more than 9% for six consecutive months. In the 1-11 months, the national coal consumption was about 3.49 billion tons, down 1.6% year-on-year. The 10% decline of the upstream supply end is much larger than the decline of the demand side. The gap generated by the mismatch between supply and demand forms an effective support for the coal price. Third, the railway capacity is tight and the railway freight rate is raised. In September this year, the national railway coal shipments rose to 158 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, which is the first positive growth since the beginning of the year. Affected by factors such as continued tight supply in the coal market, railway bureaus in various regions raised freight rates in October, and the coal market rebounded to bring rail freight, while the freight rate increase further stimulated coal prices. Fourth, due to power plants and other large coal producers in the first half of the year. Inventory remained at a relatively low level, and the second half of the year was peaking in winter. The inventory replenishment task was heavier, raising market expectations and amplifying demand in the short term. From January to October 2016, the thermal power generation capacity of power plants above designated size was 3.5868 trillion kWh, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year. The growth rate was 4.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The proportion of thermal power in the national power generation was 73.73%.

Li Wenjing, senior analyst of the business community energy branch, pointed out that the overall energy market in 2016 has risen sharply. This is in line with the China Commodity Supply and Demand Index BCI issued by the commodity data provider, the business community. The average value of the average monthly increase of 0.26 in 2016 is 0.26. 2.38%, the performance of BCI has the best record since the record). Liu Xintian, chief analyst of the business community, pointed out that BCI truly and objectively reflects the basic situation of the commodity market and the manufacturing economy in 2016, and also shows that the overall economy of China in 2016 is on the rise. In 2016, “rise became the new normal”. In the first half of the year, the bullfighting in a cage was like a bull in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter it turned into a mad cow.

Li Wenjing believes that the overall energy industry in 2016 has shown a sharp upward trend. In 2016, the national “three to one, one reduction and one supplement” policy was gradually implemented, and the supply-side reform effect appeared. The reduction in supply-side supply and the increasing demand have become the fundamental reasons for the rising prices of energy products. At the same time, in 2016, the black coal char product market has a certain halo effect. Under the influence of black hot products such as coking coal and coke, the energy market follows the effect. The expansion of the confidence of the industry and the influx of capital also boosted the energy market. Quotes.

Li Wenjing said that in 2017, first of all, in terms of international crude oil, the uncertainty in the first half of the year was mainly concentrated in the implementation of OPEC and Russia's production cuts. The uncertainty in the second half of the year was mainly due to the return of US shale oil and the Trump administration. Implementation of the energy policy. Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the business community, predicts that the international oil price trend will be larger than 2016 in 2016, and crude oil will be repositioned in the dynamic adjustment. The long-term ceiling is $70/barrel, the long-term floor price is $30/barrel, and the average price of 2017 crude oil is expected to be $50-55/barrel. Second, in terms of black coal char products, although the coal de-capacity exceeded 60 million tons in 2016. However, the industry surplus is still serious. It is expected that the production capacity will remain the top priority in the next few years. At the same time, due to the excessively high fluctuation of coal prices in 2016, the future coal production, inventory and sales will be subject to certain administrative constraints, and the coal industry will enter the whole. In the era of link regulation, the fluctuation of coal prices will also tend to ease. Looking ahead to the 2017 coal price trend, the coal price increase will increase with the probability of a phased demand change, and compared with the 2016 coal price trend, the high and low price difference will also shrink in 2017. In 2017, the price of thermal coal may be in the first quarter, and the average price of thermal coal will be between 500-600 yuan/ton in 2017. The relatively low coal price will appear in the second quarter. In terms of coke and coking coal, the fluctuation range of coke price in 2017 may be 1400-2100 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation of coking coal in 2017 is 1000-1350 yuan/ton; again, in the alcohol ether market, it is expected that there will be a gap in downstream olefin demand in 2017. The increase and the lack of new methanol production capacity have once again laid the foundation for a tight balance between supply and demand in the short-term. In the future, olefins will remain the most powerful downstream of methanol. However, the dependence of the supply and demand sides on the external disk and olefins also greatly restricts the independence of domestic methanol prices. Once the profit of olefin enterprises declines seriously, it will oppress the methanol price correction, and the state's control over coal prices will also reduce the cost of methanol. In 2017, the methanol industry under the oil and gas three-way pull will still be good overall, and the annual price trend may show a trend of high and low, and the average price may be around 2,500-2,900 yuan / ton.

On the whole, the energy market in 2017 is well watched, and the probability of a change in the stage of demand increases. However, in 2017, the economy will continue to be stable. Compared with the overall trend of the energy industry in 2016, it will not rise unilaterally, and the volatility will also increase. In the easing, or before the high and low trend, the energy index high is expected to be 830 points, the low point is 680 points.