400 billion temptation! 20000 factories bloody double 11, who can laugh to the end?

This article was first published on WeChat public account: Zhenghe Island. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.

This year's double 11, really different!

This is the first double 11 made by Made in Internet. It adopts the concept of new manufacturing and new retail. The supply chain is also “reversely applied”, and the interaction between e-commerce and factory is more tight. For example, the double eleven is included in the clothing capacity reserve. 20,000 homes and 50,000 alternative factories cover 16 provinces across the country, with strong manufacturing provinces in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian occupying a large position. Of course, it also includes industrial belts in other regions. For example, only the Jiangxi Gongqingcheng down jacket industry belt has reserved 1 million down jacket production capacity, and the VIP order monitoring and early warning, follow-up experts.

This is equivalent to a big military parade before the double eleven. And behind this, it reflects the complete change of business logic!

In the era of product surplus, a new order is taking shape!

The greatest feature of this era is that the old order is being completely destroyed, and the new order is thriving!

In the commercial aspect, the biggest change is that the traditional supply chain is being replaced by a new supply chain, and a new commercial civilization is taking shape. This is like the reverse of the human rule.

The traditional supply chain consists of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and consumers, and is a long and narrow chain structure.

This is a large wholesale model and a top-down approach: manufacturers need to sell products to distributors, distributors to retailers, and finally to consumers.

Each downstream link must first spend money to get the goods to the upstream link, and the quantity of goods received in each link is required. The more discounts you get, the lower the discount.

This not only creates profit exploitation, but also attenuates operational efficiency. Since the sales volume of each link is certain, the products that are beyond the digestive capacity become inventory, and the layers are distributed in various links.

“Inventory” is a big black hole that devours commercial profits.

More importantly: in the age when materials were scarce, as long as you can produce the products, they will be enjoyed by consumers. But now is the era of overcapacity, the material products are very rich, and consumers' choices are getting bigger and bigger. With the cooperation of the Internet, the consumer's vision has become bigger and bigger, the demand has become more personalized and diversified, and the brand and style tend to be more, newer and faster.

Such a cumbersome and narrow supply chain cannot timely sense the latest needs of consumers, and can not make a quick response. It is still blindly and disorderly production, resulting in a large number of useless products being piled up and produced.

Therefore, this traditional production mode must be eliminated!

Business is moving from "things to gathering" to "people taking group"

As consumers become more active, those who can aggregate consumers and perceive consumer needs will emerge. Not only can they gather a large number of consumers (fans), but they can also join fans to customize products to manufacturers.

This is the future consumption relationship: what the consumer needs, what the producer has to produce, this is a reverse production process, and the intermediate distribution and marketing links are crossed, and the traditional narrow supply chain becomes reversed and flat. This is the new supply chain represented by the "net red economy"!

The essence of the "net red economy" is an art of aggregating consumers, which means that business is being over-extended from "things are gathered together" to "people are divided into groups."

However, consumer demand is niche, diversified, and fleeting, which requires the birth of a number of factories that can produce small quantities and rapid production according to consumer demand.

Therefore, the “Amoy Factory” was born, and it can be regarded as a “drop” between a factory and a merchant (including Taobao, Net Red, and Weishang).

"Precise matching" is the essence of the sharing economy. The drop matches the right passengers and drivers. The "Amoy Factory" matches the merchants and factories that can satisfy each other. Merchants can quickly develop seasonal products according to the changes of consumers' needs, and then place orders in the “Amoy Factory”, and then the factory will take orders to produce.

Under the individualized demand, even a single product, the traditional factory is still 100,000! However, on the “Amoy Factory” platform, it is possible to start a single item from 100 pieces. The original one dozen people have undertaken a large assembly line of tens of thousands of pieces of clothing, and now it is converted into 10~20 pieces for 2~3 people. A small assembly line of clothes. This is the flexible production that is quickly reflected!

For example, many net reds like to make pre-sales. They can sell a thousand pieces of clothes after a live broadcast, and then immediately order the factory, and then remove the logistics time. The production time of the factory is three to four days. But still able to meet this demand. Moving from a large order model to a small order production is the key to a surprisingly successful factory in the future.

And this also allows those factories in the off-season to start the machine, avoiding the idleness and waste of resources, which is also the value of the sharing economy.

The biggest characteristic of traditional brands is “planning”. From fabric companies to style enterprises, it is necessary to advance in a planned way, emphasizing the series and constantly promoting the story of their own brands, and relying on this to impress people.

The biggest feature of the "net red economy" is "no plan". In the face of ever-changing social changes, they need to continuously generate inspiration, and then create a variety of new styles, which is understood as a form of fashion buyer collection store.

Since the "Net Red Economy" has social media attributes, user reviews and user feedback can be collected in a timely manner. This gave birth to a very good model: pre-sale, once a new feedback is very good, immediately organize an order.

Now there are 1 million Taobao Tmall shop owners in the 1688 Amoy factory to purchase goods, looking for factories, the average quality refund rate of the Amoy sellers in the deep processing of the Amoy factory is lower than the same level of Amoy sellers 42%. The minimum order quantity of orders is 30, up to tens of thousands, and the platform delivery order accuracy rate is greater than 90%.

Due to the retrograde supply chain, those traditional production, marketing, channels and profit models have changed, and traditional economic theories and business models have failed!

We must interpret new business with a new perspective!

More powerful than Uniqlo and ZARA!

Small and medium-sized brands compete for 400 billion custom markets

In fact, the "net red economy" is just a primer, a phenomenon. From the perspective of new retail, this phenomenon reflects a strong appeal of the society:

A large number of small and medium-sized brands are emerging! This is the general trend of China's real business changes!

Today, there are two ways to upgrade the global manufacturing industry. One of them is Uniqlo and ZARA are working hard. They are building a global production, supply, logistics, and retail system. They can put every link at global cost. The lowest place, then build a global logistics and retail system.

For example, ZARA has many direct retail stores, and has a very powerful ERP system. All stores have unified management data for each millisecond, and then calculate the optimal path. Although they are responding as quickly as possible, they value their own designs and look forward to using design to lead the trend.

This is a management method of large-scale water. However, the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry has not taken this path. China's e-commerce and express logistics industry is very developed, which enables Chinese merchants to meet the needs of consumers in an infinite way and gradually approach the economic model of on-demand production.

China has produced such a huge market. This market is several times the size of ZARA. How many industrial opportunities are there? By 2020, there will be a market of nearly 400 billion yuan. We will have countless small and medium-sized brands in the future, and even each brand has its own offline direct retail stores, each of which is stronger than the ZARA direct store.

The rise of massive small and medium-sized brands is precisely the unique phenomenon of the Chinese economy. This is a new model for new technologies. Many stores are branding. One of the evidences is that the biggest difference between a shop that has been sold well three years ago and a shop that has a good deal today is that the proportion of old customers is much higher, which is The biggest feature of branding.

However, in the past supply chain, even if the annual turnover is very high, you are at most a dealer or agent, so in the traditional big wholesale era, the formation of the stall pattern, rather than the brand.

In the past, if a market had a scale of 10 billion, it might consist of 50 customers, and after three years, the 10 billion-scale market would consist of 2,000 customers. Therefore, even if the total size of the market does not expand, there are still a large number of small and medium-sized brands born!

Massive small and medium-sized brands are fashion brands with customization as the core. With the post-95s becoming the main shopping force, the rising speed will be much higher than the traditional brands. They will become more competitive and vital, and may be from millions in a year. It will become tens of millions and can grow at a rate of three times and five times a year.

The mystery of "flexible" production: not watching fans, watching users

These massive small and medium brands have several common characteristics:

First of all, they are very focused on a certain category, with the ability to vertically open and vertically integrate. For example, from raw material sources, design and development, to production and marketing, to customer service, and post-maintenance. There will also be a secondary division of labor, such as embroidering special embroidery factory, printing special printing, selling zipper special sales zipper, and then there are many subdivisions of division of labor.

Only in this way can we achieve real flexibility. They may not be behind a factory, they may have a factory group, but they can be integrated at any time.

Secondly, those shops with very good sales have a common feature: they are very good at the aggregation of people. In the past two years, we paid more attention to the number of fans of the Reds, and now we will watch the number of fans of their micro-Amoy, they use content and users. Establish a strong association. Of course, they know how to better use the power of the masses, and each sentence contains the art of mobilizing the masses.

This also represents the changing trend of the nature of business: it is changing from “things to gathering” to “people are divided”.

Finally, these small and medium-sized brands need a large-scale production that is synergistic, so as to avoid the fragmentation of their respective businesses.

This requires the platform to do the overall operation behind the scenes. Because many brands are in full bloom and contend, there is no planning, but the platform can put similar people together through the platform, and the similar needs are put together. Co-production.

For example, “Amoy Factory”, for example, when the winter arrives, the order quantity of down jackets comes all at once. “Amoy Factory” can bring together such similar brands. Today, next time, tomorrow, I will go down and become the next day. A relatively balanced demand input, and statistically, can also find out the rules, which is convenient for the next preparation in advance, which instead becomes a "planned" production.

According to the retail data to make a precise match, the data on the retail side is more transparent to the production side, helping the production side to do some planning preparation. Data interoperability will increase the synergy efficiency between retail and production, and the synergy efficiency will solve the problem of invalid production capacity and invalid inventory, and optimize inventory.

This is the "planned" in "no plan", which is very consistent with the dialectical philosophy.

All of the shared platforms also have a core task: to grant credit to companies at all stages of the platform, reducing the cost of unnecessary wear and tear. For example, in the Amoy factory, the production data in all the production processes of the factory is refined to 12 nodes, and 9 of them are synchronized to the back of the e-commerce sellers to control the operation flexibly. This is the same as the logistics information, through the mobile phone business in the background can directly see the production progress of each batch of goods in the factory, real-time control.

For example, in the past, many factories worried that merchants would not pay for goods, and merchants were worried about the delivery time or product quality of the factory. Therefore, the cash flow of many factories became accounts receivable, which lacked a credible platform. And “Amoy Factory” opened the Trustworthy and KA Enterprise (credit enterprise) for the factory. In this way, the cost paid by the merchant to the platform can be transferred to the factory account within three to five days.

At the same time, when the funds and cash flow of the merchants cannot keep up with the rapid development demand, the platform provides supply chain financial services to support their rapid development.

Conclusion

The logic of business change is actually the projection of the entire social development.

Openness, sharing, platformization, and customization are the general trends of social development.

On the big front, the “reverse attack” of this supply chain is rewriting business rules. It is like opening up the second line of the Chinese economy, and awakening China to the next spring!

From a small perspective, this new type of consumer relationship will inevitably lead to the liberation of a personality and interest, and even the realization of personal values.

Finally, we can be delighted to discover that the result of all changes is to make society more free and tolerant!

Author: callous water

Source: Zhenghe Island (ID: zhenghedao)

Correction statement

On November 9th, this official number "Two days, Trump signed a $ 253.5 billion! Why did China win? In the article, due to the omission of the author and the editor, there were two errors in the reference material:

1. “China Energy Construction and US West Virginia signed a $83.7 billion investment framework agreement” and “China Energy Construction” should be “National Energy Group”;

2. "Liu Qiang signed a three-year, $1 billion purchase agreement with Jingdong Group on behalf of Jingdong Group," and "Liu Qiang" should be "Liu Qiangdong."

We are hereby corrected and sincerely apologize to the two companies and readers. Thank you for your correction! Your attention, encouragement and spurs are the biggest driving force for us to move forward and grow.