"Daily Trader Must Read" 8.18 The US dollar may not reappear before the Jackson Hole meeting and the September meeting on interest rates.

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Fundamental review:

1. In terms of monetary policy, Fed officials Kaplan and Kashkali both made comments on the dovish. Kaplan said that the aging of the population and the slowdown in labor force have hindered the growth of the US economy. The labor market is still somewhat weak. The Fed should be patient with the next rate hike. Kashkari said it is hard to imagine how the United States should achieve 3% economic growth. It does not approve of the U.S. Congress’s audit of the Fed’s monetary policy, and long-term interest rates may be stagnant. According to sources, Fed Chair Yellen will speak on financial stability at the annual meeting of Jackson Hole on August 25 (Friday).

Before 2010, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave an "expressive" to the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) at the annual meeting. On November 3 of that year, QE2 really arrived as scheduled. In 2012, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke at the conference, releasing the signal of adopting the QE policy. In the following month, the United States announced the launch of QE3. In 2014, Yellen participated in the Jackson Hall Conference for the first time, when she said It is expected that QE will end in October of that year. If the employment market continues to perform better than expected, it will make the rate hike come faster. This speech has made the US dollar index a few. At the same meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi warned that inflation expectations in the euro zone deteriorated, releasing a strong signal of easing. In March of the following year, the European Central Bank began QE. The annual meeting of Jackson Hole will be held on August 24-26 this year. Before the global central bank feast, the market was slightly cautious.

2. In terms of economic data, the US economic data is uneven, and the CPI of the Eurozone data has declined.

(Jagged, overall positive) Yesterday announced the US last week's seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims four-week average (10,000 people) (to 0812) expected 24.1, the actual 24.05; US August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing price payment index before the value 19.1, the actual 21.1, both data are good for the dollar, a small negative gold and silver. The US July Conference Board's leading indicator monthly rate was 0.6%, the actual 0.3%, and the negative US dollar.

(Bad euro) Eurozone July CPI annual rate of 1.3%, Eurozone July CPI monthly rate of -0.5%, Eurozone July core CPI annual rate of 1.2%, unchanged from expectations; Eurozone July core The final CPI monthly rate is -0.5%, lower than the expected and the previous value of 0.2%, which is negative for the euro.

3. In geopolitics, a terrorist attack broke out in Spain, and the panic index VIX once rose more than 25%. According to Reuters, on the 17th, local time, a truck crash occurred near Plaza Catalunya in Barcelona, ​​Spain. Two gunmen entered a restaurant and heard gunshots, killing 13 people and injuring more than 50 people. The “Islamic State” extremist organization claimed responsibility for the attack.

4. Trump policy, according to Reuters, the US national economic adviser Cohen was passed or will resign, the news once suppressed the dollar, and the news was confirmed as Oolong.

5. In terms of crude oil, the American Petroleum Institute monthly report showed that US oil output in July increased by 0.9% from the previous month to 9.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, the highest output in the past 45 years.

Important data and events today:

1, 14:00 Germany July PP I monthly rate;

2, 16:00 Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account;

3, 20:30 Canada July CPI monthly rate;

4, 22:00 US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value;

5,22:15 The Fed's 2017 FOMC voting committee Kaplan participated in the Q&A session of the Dallas County Community College District Conference Day;

6. The next day, 01:00, the total number of oil wells in the US to August 18

Main species operation strategy:

US dollar index: The US dollar index rebounded slightly yesterday. In the end, a Zhongyang line with a shadow line was closed. The price returned to the 93.50-94 volatility range, and the market sentiment was cautious. Yesterday, the price fell back to a new low, and the low point showed signs of stabilization. However, the above suppression was strong and the bulls lacked momentum. In terms of strategy, pay attention to the situation of the shock zone, and wait for the moment before the price breaks or breaks. The upper press is located at 94.20, 95.25; the further support is located at 93, 92.50.

USD/JPY: The US and Japan continued to fall yesterday, and a large Yinxian line was closed again in the end. At present, the US and Japan are consolidating near the support of the lower trend line. Today is the last trading day of this week. If the weekly line closes below the trend line, the US and Japan will fall further. At present, the support below the US and Japan is located at 108.70 and 108.20, and the further support is at 107.20; the upper press is located at 110 and 111. Yesterday, it was suggested that radicals could consider bounced to short near 110.20. Investors with short positions can lighten up first, and the remaining small positions look at 108.70 and 108.20. Investors without positions can focus on the price rebound to short positions near 110, stop loss 30 points, the primary target of 109.30, and further look at 108.70, 108.20. Steady people wait and see for the time being, waiting for the line to close this week.

Euro against the US dollar: The euro fell back yesterday, regaining the previous day's gains, and closed a medium-yin line with a small shadow. From the close of the line, the price stabilized above 1.17, and its support is self-evident. At present, there is a strong suppression in the area of ​​1.1845-1.19. The following 1.17-1.1720 is an important support. The price is between the two major support and suppression. The Bollinger track is flat and the overall shock pattern is not changed. In terms of strategy, the current euro is not going up, the bearishness is not falling, and the short-term direction is unclear. If it falls below 1.17, it can be traded on the right side and entered.

Sterling against the US dollar: Yesterday, the British pound fell back slightly, and a small Yinxian was closed at the end. From the close of the line, the trend line below the price and the support of the 120 moving average are obvious, and yesterday's price failed to hit a new low, also suggesting that the price has stabilized. Despite this, the current risk is too large, and the strategy is still concerned about short-selling opportunities after the rebound. The rebound position is concerned with 1.2950, ​​stop loss at 30 points, and targets 1.29 and 1.2860.

Gold: Gold continued to close the Yangyang line yesterday, and the upward trend is intact. At present, the important suppression of gold is located at 1290, further suppression is located at 1300 and 1335, and the lower support is located at 1282, 1276, and 1270. The strategy is consistent with yesterday's thinking. The steady people are concerned about the price falling back to the support and long-term opportunities near 1282 and 1276; The price rises directly, and the radicals can take the right side of the transaction. After breaking through 1290, the small position is long.

Silver: Unlike the strong rise of gold, the overall silver continued to fall back yesterday, and a small Yinxian was closed at the end. At present, the trend of silver is still too much, and the support of the lower trend line and the support formed by the big Yang line on Wednesday still exist. At present, the important press above the price is located near 17.15-17.25, and the lower support is located near 16.85. The operation is consistent with yesterday's thinking. The radicals adopt two strategies. One is that the price breaks through 17.23 (the highest point of the week) and the right side is taken more, the target looks at 17.60; the second is that the price falls back to around 16.85. Steady people wait and see for the time being.

Crude oil: Yesterday, crude oil received a small cross-cutting line, and the price stabilized and rebounded around 46.50, but the strength was not strong. At present, the price has fallen below the recent triangle shock range, but the weekly level has not yet broken. On the last trading day today, if the price also falls below the weekly level support after the line closes, the market outlook is expected to fall further; Returning to the triangle area, the price will continue to fluctuate next week. In operation, the radicals temporarily pay attention to the suppression of the position of 47.20. If it is effectively broken, the radicals can try to enter the small position, target 48, stop loss 30 points; the steady person pays attention to the price rebound to 48 short-selling opportunities, Loss 50 points, the first target is 46.40, and the further target is 45.80.

Investment is risky and operations need to be cautious. The above content is for reference only and is not intended as investment advice.

Author: FX168 Institute of Financial Analysts Lang Feng mining

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