The price of lint and seed cotton has been hanged, which has caused the ginning factory to buy high-priced seed cotton in the early stage. According to the current market price, the ginning factory is faced with the problem of losing more compensation. If you hold the goods, you have to bear the cost of storage, loan interest and other costs of lint. "No one in this year thought that the price of seed cotton would be so high." The CEO of a ginning factory said quite helplessly. The annual cotton seed cotton purchase is nearing completion, and the price of seed cotton has dropped slightly. However, since the ginning factory has seized about 70% of the cotton at a high price in the previous period of the listed seed cotton, the average price is still higher than that of the previous years, and the price of lint and seed cotton appears. upside down. Some experts have questioned that the latest report on world cotton production predicts a 6.5% increase from the previous year. China's seed cotton prices are high, and downstream fundamentals are not supported. So high cotton prices, who is the initiator? Seed cotton price is irrational In September this year, Xinjiang seed cotton was opened for weighing at 6.5 yuan/kg. In the first ten days of October, Xinjiang seed cotton prices rose rapidly to more than 7.2 yuan / kg. In the Hami area of ​​Xinjiang, even the highest seed cotton purchase price in Xinjiang was 8.1 yuan/kg. The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton in the corresponding period last year was only 5.1 yuan / kg and 5.3 yuan / kg respectively. According to the China Cotton Association, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was lower than the national average. As the temperature drops, the rain and snow weather is coming, and this year's Xinjiang cotton harvesting work is coming to an end. However, the reporter learned from the national cotton market monitoring system that on November 7, the purchase price of seed cotton in the main cotton producing areas in Xinjiang remained at around 7.2 yuan/kg. The high price of Xinjiang seed cotton began to be transmitted to Hebei, Anhui, Henan, Shandong and other cotton-growing provinces. On November 7, the purchase price of seed cotton in the above-mentioned areas was 6.5 yuan/kg to 7.7 yuan/kg. Although the purchase price of seed cotton has fallen back from the previous high point, it is still significantly higher than the same period in recent years. The target price of cotton determined by the country this year is 18,600 yuan / ton, and the price of seed cotton has exceeded this price. A market analyst pointed out that this year's seed cotton prices have been speculatively high, which is an irrational market behavior. On the one hand, global cotton production has risen slightly this year; on the other hand, global oil prices have been operating at low levels, and the price of cotton substitutes has been at a low level, resulting in a price difference of more than 8,000 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous year’s average. It is nearly 2,000 yuan/ton higher, and the cost of replacing cotton with chemical fiber is low. In addition, the downstream textile and garment industry is still sluggish. The total amount of cotton consumed by the national textile and garment enterprises is declining every year. The willingness to purchase cotton is not strong and is in a wait-and-see state. Such a lack of fundamental support is hidden behind the Khmer price. Ginning factory The price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is high, and the price of lint is upside down. Analysts at the Jinshi Futures Cotton Research Center said that due to the current supply of seed cotton, the purchasing intention of textile enterprises is not strong, and the trading volume is light, and the lint spot market is operating below the cost line. Although China's monetary policy is loose in the second half of this year, hot money has begun to enter the commodity trading market, and the cotton market is one of them. However, the cotton market is not the main area of ​​hot money intervention. Only a small amount of hot money will be thrown in the market and will be low. Buy and earn the difference in the shock. Take the CF1701, the main contract of Zheng Cotton in January 2017 as an example, the price is mainly fluctuated between 15,000 yuan/ton and 15500 yuan/ton. According to data released by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the main contract of cotton futures in September was closed at 15,180 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up by 1,590 yuan/ton from the end of last month, an increase of 11.7%. As of November 8, the main contract CF1701 closed at 15,205 yuan / ton. The price of lint and seed cotton has been hanged, which has caused the ginning factory to buy high-priced seed cotton in the early stage. Xinjiang ginning factory manager said that the current price of Xinjiang seed cotton is mostly concentrated at 6.5-7.5 yuan / kg, the price of processed lint is 16250 yuan / ton - 17250 yuan / ton, while the textile and apparel enterprises lint purchase price is only 15,000 yuan / Ton-16,000 yuan / ton, the difference is about 1,000 yuan / ton. It is worth noting that the ginning factory accounted for the largest share of the seed cotton during the period from mid-September to mid-October, with prices ranging from 7.5 yuan/kg to 7.9 yuan/kg. According to the current market price, the ginning factory is faced with the problem of losing more compensation. If you hold the goods, you have to bear the cost of storage, loan interest and other costs of lint. In fact, the ginning factory is partly self-defeating. In 2014-2016, during the three years of the trial of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang, the income from cotton planting in the Mainland continued to decline, and the cotton planting area continued to shrink. The ginning factory went to Xinjiang to build factories or package factories. At the same time, when the country implemented the temporary cotton purchasing and storage policy in the past few years, the ginning factory adhered to the operating principle of “quick acquisition, fast processing and fast deliveryâ€, which was profitable and attracted various social capital investment ginning mills and ginning. The factory has sprung up. At present, there are 853 ginning factories certified by Xinjiang, with a processing capacity of nearly 6 million tons, which is much higher than cotton production. The competition for seed cotton purchase is fierce. In addition, the ginning factory in Xinjiang, especially the newly added ginning factory, is widely leased to others. In order to maintain the basic balance of payments and meager profit, when the seed cotton is opened for scale this year, these leased ginning mills will definitely lose money without receiving cotton. It is necessary to purchase a certain amount of seed cotton according to the size of the ginning factory to ensure the balance of payments as much as possible. After the gambling, the lint price rose and became profitable, which caused the phenomenon of buying seed cotton in the early stage. Downstream textile companies remain on the sidelines Although there are many mainland textile and garment enterprises coming to Xinjiang to look at the market or by telephone, mail and other means of inquiry, but there are very few orders, and in the past, mainland textile companies will generally go to Xinjiang to purchase cotton in September. In this way, the high cost of seed cotton purchase in 2016/17 is likely to be “a castle in the airâ€. The national reserve cotton obviously gave the textile enterprises a "reassuring". According to the statistics of China Cotton Network, in 2015/2016, the total export volume of the national reserve cotton was 2,592,200 tons, and the average transaction price was 13,324 yuan/ton. The round-off time was as of the end of September. Such a large volume of transactions indicates that cotton textile enterprises "have cotton in their hands and do not panic in their hearts." According to the announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance on the storage and storage of the national reserve, a new round of dumping will be launched from March to August 2017. Under normal circumstances, the number of stocks sold in the reserve cotton will not exceed 50,000 tons per working day. A rough calculation, the total amount of new reserves in 2017 is about 6.6 million tons. In the 2016/2017 cotton year, domestic cotton production is expected to be 4.572 million tons. At present, the annual cotton consumption of China's textile and garment enterprises is about 7 million tons. China's textile and garment industry is still sluggish, and demand for upstream raw materials is not strong. According to customs statistics, in September China's textile and apparel exports were about 22.764 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 15.41%, a decrease of 12.3 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 18.50% from the previous month. In the first three quarters, China's total exports of textiles and clothing reached US$2011.01 billion, a decrease of 4.87% year-on-year. The overall export situation is not optimistic. According to the China National Business Information Center, in the first three quarters of 2016, the retail sales of apparel in 50 major large-scale retail enterprises nationwide fell by 1.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. In addition, due to the long-term price hung between national cotton and imported cotton, large textile companies are more willing to purchase imported cotton. The reporter learned from Jinshi Futures that the national cotton market monitoring system data shows that the current domestic standard grade cotton and Indian cotton (S-6) export price difference of 2760 yuan / ton, significantly higher than the first half of 2015 nearly 2000 yuan / ton. Moreover, this year's US cotton harvest is expected to increase production by about 20%, which is bound to impact the national cotton market, aggravating the wait-and-see mood of some textile companies. A small and medium-sized garment factory specializing in foreign trade in Kunshan said in an interview that there was no order in the first half of the year. It was hard to get Christmas and New Year's Day coming, but the season was not busy, orders were limited, and overseas customers pressed the price. Very low. In order to reduce the cost, the factory changed the mode of directly purchasing the finished fabric, but directly purchased the cotton yarn from the yarn factory, commissioned the weaving factory to produce it, and searched for the most reasonable purchase target in Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other provinces. Warm and stylish! This Parker coat will be fine in winter (Photos) Mens Linen Shirts,100% Linen Mens Shirts,Linen Casual Shirts,Linen Cotton Casual Shirt Shaoxing Moonten Trade Co., Ltd , https://www.sxmoontens.com