The transformation of the apparel industry into a weak recovery phase is still in the process of exploration

By macroeconomic downside, consumer ideas into business impact and electricity, the situation of the apparel industry in recent years increasingly difficult. However, the apparel industry has recently begun to show signs of recovery.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of May this year, China’s textile and apparel and apparel business income was 922.5 billion, up 7.7% year-on-year; total profit was 52.23 billion, up 9.4% year-on-year; revenue and profit growth was significantly higher than last year. The same period.

Wind statistics show that as of June 29, 47 textile and apparel industry listed companies announced the first half of the performance forecast, 37 pre-history, accounting for 78.72%. According to industry insiders, thanks to the depreciation of the RMB in 2016, domestic cotton prices have stabilized and demand has picked up, the textile and garment industry has entered a stage of weak recovery, and the overall economy of the industry has been rising. M&A and new business transformation have led to significant growth in the performance of some companies.

The performance is generally good

Among the 37 companies with the first half-year performance pre-happiness, there were 10 pre-increased, 7 surpluses, a slight increase of 18, and 2 losses. According to the estimated upper limit of net profit, there are 16 companies with net profit exceeding 100 million yuan, 9 companies with more than 50 million yuan, 6 companies with net profit increase exceeding 100%, and 5 companies with more than 50%.

According to the performance report released by Bosideng recently, the total revenue for the fiscal year 2017 (as of the end of March 2017) was 6.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and the net profit was 392 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.48%. This reversed the previous avalanche-style decline. From 2013 to 2016, Bosideng's revenue decreased from 9.338 billion to 5.808 billion, a drop of 37.81%; net profit fell by 73%.

Bosideng said in the earnings report that in the past few years, it has moved from a traditional business model that relies on opening stores to focusing on wholesale business to a retail model that is closer to the market and consumers. From the performance report, Bosideng's transformation seems to have achieved certain results.

Senma apparel is expected to have a net profit of 513 million yuan to 666 million yuan, ranking first. For the main reason for the increase in net profit, Senma Apparel said that the casual wear business continued to improve, the children's business grew steadily, and the Internet business developed rapidly, which promoted the company's performance growth. Judging from the situation in the first quarter of this year, the sales of children's wear brand “Balaba” maintained a double-digit growth, and the status of the leading brand of children's wear continued to consolidate.

Shandong Ruyi by expanding production lines, adjust production capacity to achieve revenue growth. The company said that its subsidiary Taian Ruyi will add two new production lines, one of which has already reached production and the other is under construction. The Ruyi Spinning High-grade Worsted Fabric Project, which mainly produces high-end worsted fabric products, is under construction. It is understood that the gross profit margin of the project will be higher than the company's average gross profit margin. Shandong Ruyi’s secretary-general Xu Changrui previously stated that after the completion of the above projects, the company’s performance will be increased. Shandong Ruyi expects net profit for the first half of the year to be about 14 million yuan - 20 million yuan, an increase of 4.62% -49.46%.

The company's supply chain management and brand management related business has developed rapidly, and its performance in the first half of the year is expected to increase significantly. The company's estimated net profit is about 313 million yuan -368 million yuan. Haitong Securities believes that the textile and garment industry has a large scale, long chain, many links, and low operational efficiency. The search starts from the supply side and focuses on comprehensive improvement of all links in the supply chain.

Of course, some people are happy with someone. Although some companies are expected to grow, the recovery pressure remains. Companies with declining performance still face many challenges.

Busen shares expects to lose 21 million yuan to 28 million yuan in the first half of the year. For the main reason for the loss, the company said that customer orders decreased and operating income decreased. Baoxin Bird expects a loss of 20 million yuan to 40 million yuan in the first half of the year. The company said that the terminal retail market continued to be weak, and the various costs were relatively rigid and rising, and the company's operating conditions remained difficult.

Chen Ping, the secretary of the seven wolves, said recently that there has been an increase in terminal data since the fourth quarter of 2016. Whether to maintain a good momentum throughout 2017 and achieve a "true recovery, strong recovery" depends on sales in the third and fourth quarters. Seven wolves are expected to have a net profit of about 105 million yuan to 126 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 0%-20%.

According to analysts, in general, listed companies in the apparel industry have strengthened their transformation by optimizing supply chains, strengthening inventory management, optimizing online and offline layouts, and analyzing consumer segments. However, the market recovery is still lower than expected. In the case of channel e-commerce and diversification of consumer groups, the current situation of low profits of apparel companies is still difficult to change in the short term.

Sadness and joy on the road of transformation

The recovery of the apparel industry is spurring a new wave of apparel companies to go public. In the short half year since the end of December 2016, there have been six apparel companies listed on the A-share market, and in the previous four years, only five garments The company is listed.

Zhongtai Securities believes that in 2016, the textile and garment industry companies achieved scale growth and industrial upgrading through strategic transformation and outreach mergers and acquisitions.

Caesar culture expects net profit for the first half of the year to be approximately 889.793 million yuan to 1.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100%-150%. For the main reason for the growth in performance, the company said that Tianyou Youjia began to merge into the scope of consolidation in June. Tianshang Youjia's main business is the development and operation of mobile online games. Currently, the online game products mainly include "New Xianjian Qixia Chuan 3D", "Purification", "Plants vs. Zombies OL". After the acquisition of the sky Friends of the Kerry Caesar culture, and gradually build a clothing and online gaming industries, the financial industry, supplemented by the diversified development platform, driven by three accelerate the completion of the transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment.

Annai exerted a force to lay out the store. Dong Zhi Liao Zhigang said that he will continue to enter the high-quality department store; at the same time, the shopping mall channel is developing rapidly. At present, there are nearly 4,000 shopping centers, and the space for offline shopping is still large. Annair expects operating income in the first half of the year to be 455 million yuan to 500 million yuan, up 5% to 15.38% year-on-year. It is estimated that net profit attributable to owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses will be 42 million yuan to 46 million yuan. It increased by 5.47% year-on-year to 15.51%.

There will be failures in the success of the transformation. Metersbonwe, who once said to be "Zara of China", released its quarterly report at the end of April, and both revenue and net profit fell in the first quarter of 2017. At the same time, the company also estimated the first half of the results in the quarterly report, the net loss is expected to be up to 60 million yuan.

In fact, as early as 2015, Smith Barney had a loss of 430 million. Last year, it did not fall into a net loss due to the sale of Shanghai Meibang Enterprise Development Company. However, Metersbonwe, which sells its subsidiaries to solve their urgent needs, still cannot solve the operational problems fundamentally.

After going through the adjustment of the store, coaching, transformation, etc., it has become a huge problem in front of the current chairman.

The industry believes that the current problem is that the Internet is too much a mission, thus ignoring what users really want, ignoring the ultimate purpose of using the Internet.

On the transition road, securities of the Yangtze River, said the textile manufacturing industry, cotton prices, exchange rates and environmental policy as a starting point, focus on the cost impact of fluctuations on the supply side and end corporate earnings; textile clothing enterprises in the supply chain optimization-based supply chain structure or While mode innovation provides relevant services, it actively promotes M&A activities, spans growth bottlenecks, and focuses on targets with fundamental support and M&A expectations, and valuations are cheap; in terms of brand channels, weak physical channel expansion, high cost of network channel conversion and conversion The "new retail" model of online and offline integration is worthy of attention.