When the "Double Eleven" futures were bought, they were smashed by the commodity cows and were shocked by midnight.

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This year's "Double Eleven", when many people were still intoxicated by crazy shopping, the crazy futures goods had a tragedy, and Shanghai Copper suddenly jumped from the previous seven consecutive days to the intraday trading, from the daily limit to more than 3%. Cotton, rubber, Shanghai nickel and other varieties staged a reversal from the daily limit to the down limit.

After the stampede occurred, investors who were waking up in the dream began to look for reasons. Window guidance theory, configuration strict investigation theory, transaction restriction theory... For a time, there are different opinions. However, if you understand the reality of the market on the eve of the tragedy, you may not feel how many accidents this incident has.

Some industries have experienced cost crisis

On November 11th, an A-share listed company with a satisfactory stock price held an investor meeting in Zhejiang. However, there are not many investors going to the show. After the break, Mr. Ji, a professional investor, told the Securities Times reporter, "This company has no play."

The above-mentioned A-share companies are engaged in warp knitting business, and the income mainly comes from supplying interior fabrics to automobile manufacturers. This industry is no stranger to Mr. Ji. Before becoming a professional investor, Mr. Ji’s family business is a leather fabric enterprise with a revenue of nearly 100 million yuan in Haining, Zhejiang. However, in April of this year, Mr. Ji retired from the management position of the family business and is now in the capital circle of Hangzhou.

“The leather business is very difficult now. There are hundreds of large and small leather manufacturers in Haining and Tongxiang in Zhejiang. The original competition is quite fierce and the business is light. This year’s situation is even worse, and the raw materials of fur have risen. Cheap orders are not dare to pick up, and the price increase customers are afraid to ask." On the way back, Mr. Ji drove his BMW car and told reporters about the dilemma encountered by the manufacturing company.

In fact, the hardships revealed by Mr. Ji are just a microcosm on the way to the recent interview. In the sound of coal, iron ore and chemical raw materials, downstream companies began to face cost tests in a few months. For example, Wenzhou's footwear industry, the Yangtze River Delta's printing and dyeing textiles, and Guangdong's small household appliances, etc., are all called out for bitterness.

It is reported that this year, the rare rise in bulk commodities is moving to the industrial manufacturing sector, especially the ferrous metal and coke coking coal thermal coal series, which has seen a decline in the previous years. Such rapid and large increases have made it difficult for downstream manufacturing companies to pass on costs. Take the Bohai Sea thermal coal price as an example. As of October 31, the price closed at 593 yuan / ton, up 222 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of 2016, an increase of 59.8%.

“The rise in coke and coking coal prices this year has had a huge impact on the steel industry, and the impact will continue.” Zhang Min, a coal analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that since June this year, China’s steel exports have been declining month by month, and have fallen for four consecutive months. And set a new low of 16 months. The latest data shows that China exported 7.7 million tons of steel in October, down 1.1 million tons from the previous month, down 14.6% year-on-year.

Domestic export pressures are increasing, which is closely related to international competitive pressures and export cost increases. Since the end of September, domestic steel prices have fluctuated and increased in October. As of now, the price index of steel mills is 812.48 points, up 19.41% from the end of September. Domestic steel prices have risen too fast, domestic and international prices have been upside down, and corporate export enthusiasm has weakened, which has led to a rapid decline in steel exports.

The increase in costs has led to a significant erosion of steel companies' profits, and some steel mills have even suffered losses in the rise of steel prices. The data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, 35 listed steel companies achieved a net profit of 9.281 billion yuan, up 204.52% year-on-year; net profit in the third quarter was 5.01 billion yuan, up 132.08% year-on-year, but down 39.28%. From the perspective of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of the above-mentioned steel enterprises in the first three quarters increased by 4.25 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year. The third quarter increased by 7.01 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, but decreased by 3.31 percentage points compared with the second quarter.

The regulatory authorities frequently shot down the market

"At present, coal prices in northern Shaanxi are still rising, but coal companies are vigorously supplying, and price increases are not caused by coal shortage. The panic in the market has boosted coal prices. On November 11, Shaanxi coal boss Wang told the Securities Times. At the same time, he pointed out that there are some people who are hoarding coal speculation in order to make profits.

The voice just fell, crazy futures goods, staged a massacre in the "double eleven" night that 10,000 people bought. At the opening of 9:00 on the evening of the 11th, the futures market continued the trend of the previous mad cows, and the screen was full. But half an hour later, the Shanghai copper, which is a symbolic species, fell more than 3% from the daily limit. Other futures varieties, such as Zhengshang cotton, had a daily limit, and then fell again; palm oil, soybean oil, vegetable oil and other varieties also fell.

To what extent is this massacre? Duan Zishou has already calculated an account. It is said that in February this year, 100,000 pieces of coke were put into full warehouse and became full. By October 31, it became 330 million yuan. However, on the evening of the 11th, the board stopped growing and made more cotton. After 5 minutes, everything went back to zero.

"For this year, soaring commodity abnormal phenomenon, the biggest concern is the excessive growth of the CPI market." State Securities 600,109, to buy the asset allocation categories analyst Xu Yang told reporters, because the CPI affected by agricultural 000061, purchase price impact More direct, and the price of agricultural products is weak this year, so despite the obvious increase in the PPI led by the black system, the current increase in CPI has not been evident. However, the PPI has now ended its 54-month downtrend channel, and the increase is very obvious.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 9, CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year in October, up 0.2 percentage points from September, and the year-on-year growth rate returned to the “2%” era. In October, the PPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month and rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest since December 2011. In other words, in order to coking coal, coke, led by Black continued to surge, driven by the overall commodity prices, the high cost of not only the transfer to the field of production and consumption is affecting the economic performance data.

Xu Yang said that if the black line headed by the "double arrogance" continues to drive the entire commodity soaring, the impact of the PPI will be transmitted to the CPI, which takes roughly two to three months. What we are most reluctant to see is that after the CPI rises, the next interest rate hike, the financial bubble burst, and finally directly impact on real estate.

In order to alleviate the continuous surge in coal prices and coal shortages in some areas this year, since September, the National Development and Reform Commission has held eight consecutive meetings on curbing the excessive rise in coal prices and stabilizing the coal market. After entering November, the coal market Start to cool down.

Zhang Min, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Coal, said that after the National Development and Reform Commission held a coal enterprise price warning meeting on November 3, mainstream coal enterprises began to respond, and thermal coal prices began to decline . Among them, Shenhua, Yitai Yankuang, Huainan Mining, Jincheng Coal and other coal The coal price of enterprises was lowered by 10 yuan/ton. Following the downward adjustment of the price of thermal coal in mainstream coal enterprises, the price index of the Bohai Sea thermal coal announced on November 9 was also lowered by RMB 1/ton to RMB 606/ton.

At the same time, since November, the previous period, the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the Zhengzhou Commodity Futures Exchange (Zhengshang Institute) announced five, three and four announcements respectively, adjusting the transaction fees for multiple varieties, Margin standard or ups and downs. The new trading quota system in the commodity futures market is also one of the means of strengthening supervision. In recent trading days, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange have successively announced the increase of handling fees or trading margins for rebar and other related varieties, and for the first time implemented a trading quota system for individual varieties. This is the first time that the system has been implemented in the commodity futures market since the big business office in May this year and the transaction quota system introduced in the previous period.